Posted Jul 7th 2008 5:12PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: International markets, Industry, Housing, Technology, Recession

I don't know about you, but I'm tired of watching all the red on the screen. Everyday we're faced with doomsday predictions facing the real estate market, the credit crunch, rising inflation, natural disasters, and my favorite, the Iranian threat facing the entire world.
Bloomberg is out with a story this morning that
details the soaring arson rate in foreclosed homes around the U.S. As foreclosed homes are vacated, arson rates are on the rise. Not surprisingly, the highest arson rates are in the states with the highest foreclosure rates.
According to Bloomberg, "Last year, fires in vacant Nevada buildings increased 4 percent from a year earlier." Local officials think that number may grow this year. Bloomerg further states, "The state had the worst foreclosure rate in the U.S. during the first quarter, with one filing for every 54 households, according to data compiled by RealtyTrac Inc. The national rate was one filing per 194 households, analysts at the Irvine, California company said."
How can investors play this without taking out policies on their neighbors' houses? Investors may want to look at
Tyco International (NYSE:
TYC). Yes, that same company that had corporate execs dipping both hands into the cookie jar and spending on lavish parties, apartments, umbrella stands -- all during the excesses of the late 1990's. Well, the company is a leader in Fire and Safety products: everything from sprinkler systems in office buildings to its ADT division, a leading alarm monitoring firm.
The stock hasn't done much after the company broke itself up into three separate, publicly traded companies. It's pretty diversified in its products and does have a lot of exposure to the building industry -- so, a prolonged downturn in the housing industry could affect the firm. But it's got some world class products, a global sales and marketing infrastructure and is diversified in its businesses to capture global growth.
Hopefully, it won't crash and burn like the foreclosed, U.S. homeowner.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author is long TYC stock.Posted May 27th 2008 5:21PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: International markets, Products and services, S and P 500
You can say a lot about the Swiss (sorry Mom!), but at least they are always on time. There is a great article
over on the BBC that details Switzerland's obsession with time. Everywhere you turn in Switzerland, there's a watch, a clock, or a timer of sorts. I love visiting my Mom who's a recent transplant to Zurich. The trains, the shows, food service -- everything is exactly on time.
It's going to be interesting when hordes of tourists from across Europe and hinder pour into Switzerland June 7 for the start of the
European football (that's soccer to you and me) championships. Extra trams and trains are already being rolled out to make sure fans make it everywhere they need to go -- on time.
So, how does one think about "playing" the
Euro 2008?
Continue reading Investing in Euro 2008 (and Swiss punctuality)
Posted May 27th 2008 12:34PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: International markets, China, China Mobile Limited (CHL), Technology
As China continues its massive economic expansion, the country is in a continuous state of flux.
According to the New York Times, China has requested its six telecommunication firms to consolidate their assets, effectively paving the way for fixed-line operators to get into the mobile arena.
According to the same
Times article, "the parent of China Telecom will buy a mobile phone network from the parent of
China Unicom (NYSE:
CHU), which in turn will merge with the company that controls the
China Netcom Group (NYSE:
CN) ... China will issue three third-generation wireless licenses after the overhaul is completed."
The big short-term loser of this directive appears to be
China Mobile (NYSE:
CHL). The stock was down about 7% Monday off the news. The firm's stronghold on the mobile telecom market in China is now effectively weakened as China Telecom and Netcom can gear up to compete against China Mobile.
Why should this interest investors? Again, according to the
Times, China had almost 600 million mobile phone users at the end of April, exceeding the combined populations of the United States and Japan. In the world's largest mobile market in terms of users, the $100 billion market is poised to ramp up given that just over half of all Chinese own mobile phones and a lot less than that have Internet connections.
Zack Miller is the lead equity analyst for America Israel Investment Associates, LLC., the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com an d a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
Posted May 13th 2008 1:03PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: International markets, Deals, Boeing Co (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT)
According to an
article on Bloomberg, "European defense contractors have sought work and acquisitions in the U.S., where military spending has grown faster than in their home markets. BAE Systems Plc, Europe's largest weapons maker, bought Jacksonville, Florida-based Armor Holdings Inc., the biggest maker of armor for Humvee transports, last year for more than $4.1 billion."
Now an
Italian firm is bidding $5.2 billion for
DRS Technologies (NYSE:
DRS). According to the same article in Bloomberg, the acquiring firm, Finmeccanica, makes carbon-fiber frames for
Boeing Co. (NYSE:
BA)'s 300-seat 787 Dreamliner, and its AgustaWestland helicopter division has a supply contract with
Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:
LMT) for the U.S. presidential fleet. DRS makes flight recorders, sensors and thermal-imaging devices that are used on U.S. military helicopters and ships.
Finmeccanica is partly owned by the Italian government. An acquisition like this rounds out the Italian defense supplier's product-line and positions it well to penetrate U.S. military spending. Much of the premium paid by the Italians has been realized already as the venerable
Wall Street Journal reported of the possible deal last week.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.Posted May 13th 2008 10:40AM by Zack Miller
Filed under: China, Indices, Mutual funds, Commodities, Oil, Initial public offerings, Stocks to Buy

Everyone is talking about solar. Whether you believe that solar energy will somehow displace an oil-driven economy or not (I don't), some of these stocks like
First Solar (NASDAQ:
FSLR) and
JA Solar (NASDAQ:
JASO) have seen big gains over the past few years.
The success of solar companies has not been lost on ETF firms with their constant new products hitting the market. A smaller ETF firm called Claymore Securities looks to be first to the market with a solar ETF, the
Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF, with an aptly-named ticker, (NYSE:
TAN).
Here's Claymore's
website for the recently launched ETF. From the firm's website, the
index defines a company engaged in solar energy as falling into two main categories:
1. Solar photovoltaic power, which involves the conversion of sunlight into electricity through the photovoltaic process; and
2. Thermal solar power, which involves using energy from the sun to heat fluids for purposes of water or space heating or to produce electricity.
Continue reading Investors looking for broad exposure to solar getting TANned
Posted Apr 13th 2008 4:10PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: Mutual funds, U.S. Steel (X), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT)
This market is tough. Pros and novices alike are having a tough time. Particularly in a down market, a market commentators like to call a ""stock picker's market," I find it illustrative to dig deeper into the holdings of those special professional money managers that have found a way to make a go of it.
Take the CGM Focus (CGMFX) fund. This fund consistently shows up at the top of 1-year, 3-year, and multi-year best performers. CGM Focus has returned on average 37% per year for the past five years. While this is absolutely no guarantee that it will continue to perform like this, fund manager Chuck Heebner seems to have the special sauce -- at least for now.
So, what has been so successful for the fund?
Commodity picks like fertilizer plays Potash (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) have been big positions and have been big winners. Steel plays like US Steel (NYSE: X) have performed very nicely for CGM as well.
Looking at what worked is somewhat like looking into a rear-view mirror. These gains were in the past. What's Heebner and team buying now?
Continue reading Piggybacking the pros: CGM Focus Fund
Posted Apr 13th 2008 10:10AM by Zack Miller
Filed under: Industry, Consumer experience, AMR Corp (AMR)
American Airlines, a subsidiary of AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), has announced that it received the green light from aviation officials to return all of its 300 grounded jets to service. The jets were temporarily grounded as the Federal Aviation Administration surprised the airlines as officials thought the required repairs had been made weeks ago . Officials said that "the wiring still was not secured and stowed properly in wheel wells."
American, the U.S.'s largest airlines, resumed flying the MD-80s today after canceling more than 3,000 flights this week. The AP story linked to above quoted an S&P analyst who reckoned the cancellations cost the struggling airlines at least $30 million.
There is quite a row going on at SeekingAlpha (warning: foul language) where top media blogger, Jeff Jarvis, has recently turned his sights on the airline industry as a whole. Jarvis, well-known for his views on the death of old media, Jarvis augers that without change the whole industry is in a death-spiral.
Says Jarvis, "I think the essence of their future is: They [the airlines] have to explore new value by having a decent relationship with us, using that new value to improve the experience so they can have a decent relationship. Screwing your customers is the least sustainable business model."
Them's fightin' words...
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
Posted Apr 8th 2008 11:24AM by Zack Miller
Filed under: Forecasts, Deals, Washington Mutual (WM)

Fellow BloggingStocks contributor, Aaron Katsman, and I were discussing the pros and cons of investing in high-yield bonds this morning. You know, those types of risky bonds that pay a pretty good yield in return for investors lending a risky company their hard-earned cash. Inevitably, Washington Mutual's name came up.
Is it worth the risk of default to get some juicy yield?
Dunno, but just as we were discussing the troubled lender, some news rolled out over the wires.
Washington Mutual (NYSE:
WM), the largest savings and loan in the U.S., announced it's taking an
investment totaling $7 billion from an investor group led by private equity firm, TPG, or
Texas Pacific Group.
Well, that helps provide some stability. At least for a while.
Continue reading Washington Mutual shoring up its balance sheet with investment
Posted Apr 7th 2008 2:36PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: Deals, Verizon Communications (VZ), Technology, Israel
Readers of
IsraelNewsletter.com know that one of the Israeli firms we follow is
Gilat Satellite (NASDAQ:
GILT). In fact, my colleague Aaron Katzman and I have
featured Gilat here on BloggingStocks and gave a synopsis of what we felt was the long case for Gilat.
We've speculated for months that Gilat was about to be acquired for a premium over its current stock price. The Israeli communications provider has been very active from a sales point of view, landing deals with the U.S. Postal Service, building a network for
Verizon (NYSE:
VZ) and expanding its global distribution. It had turned down offers earlier last year. Prominent hedge fund, York Capital, owned a big chunk of Gilat's debt, which it converted into stock last year, making it a 30% holder. Pretty bullish signal for Gilat.
Well, the firm
announced that it is to be acquired by a group of investors for $11.40/share recently. I'm blogging this less as giving us a pat on the back (though, it does feel good to get one right) but to point out an interesting part of the deal.
The deal isn't supposed to close for another six months or so. Interestingly, in a squirmy market, this stock is trading almost 7% down from its acquisition price. A 6% return for six months, or an annualized 12%, isn't a bad return if you think the deal is going to go through. I won't handicap this deal, but the consortium appears serious about its offer and its ability to get the deal done. In a bad market, it's very possible that a deal like this falls through. We saw a
similar thing occur with ECI Telecom, an Israeli buyout last year, that traded almost 10% below its purchase price leading right up to the deal.
Worth taking a look and doing the research.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.Posted Apr 7th 2008 8:33AM by Zack Miller
Filed under: International markets, Deals, Novartis AG ADS (NVS)
Just announced this morning, global drug manufacturer
Novartis (NYSE:
NVS) is offering to buy a minority stake in the world's largest eye-care firm,
Alcon (NYSE:
ACL), by buying the stake from food conglomerate
Nestle (OTC:
NSRGY).
Essentially, the deal is to happen in two parts. The first stage appears to be a purchase of a 25% stake in Alcon for around $11 billion. This purchase comes with an option to purchase an additional 52% stake for about $28 billion.
Novartis will pay $143.18 a share for the purchase of the 25% stake. The option to purchase the 52% stake will come at a fixed share price of $181 and can come between 2010 and 2011.
From a
statement on Nestle's website, the food maker plans to use the proceeds to reduce debt and the cash will also "support opportunities for profitable growth in line with the group's nutrition, health and wellness orientation.''
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
Posted Apr 3rd 2008 12:11PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Research in Motion (RIMM), Smartphones, Technology
Research in Motion (NASDAQ:
RIMM), the company behind the super popular BlackBerry messaging device, delivered strong forecasts that topped what analysts were expecting. In spite of what many fear to be a very dour situation for technology companies, and particularly those focused on the consumer electronics, RIMM put up some very impressive numbers, propelling the stock upwards in pre-market trading.
Instead of paring back spending, consumers seem to be continuing its spending (at least on Crackberries) as the company reported that it had nearly doubled its revenues in the last year.
There are now officially 14 million RIMM devices out there. ``The BlackBerry has moved from being an enterprise tool to being something that soccer moms are using," said one analyst interviewed by
Bloomberg.
As armchair analysts, we should ask ourselves why does RIMM continue to perform even in the face of recession/depression/chicken-little-sky-is-caving-in scenarios?
I think
obsession is the word to describe it.
Readers should be intrigued to know that the
BBC reported that mega-star Madonna "sleeps with her BlackBerry" under her pillow, just in case she "remembers something during the night."
Um, ever heard of paper and pen?
For those addicted to the aptly-nicknamed Crackberry, they just can't stop. Try to get their attention over dinner? Sorry, their shifty eyes are always glancing down. Want a quiet, intimate time alone with the family? Oops, I forgot, someone is attached by what I call "the world's longest leash."
And what if that someone is yours truly? Guilty as charged...
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.Posted Apr 3rd 2008 11:11AM by Zack Miller
Filed under: Apple Inc (AAPL), Wal-Mart (WMT)
As a family, we try to sit down together every night for dinner. It's a small thing, but it's the only time all day that the seven of us can both talk and listen. I walk in from work listening to my iPod and the kids ask me, "Whattya listening to?". The answer, I explained, is
Yael Naim, recent holder of a top single
New Soul.
Turns out that
Apple (NASDAQ:
AAPL)'s Steve Jobs personally picked her tune to launch the new MacBook Air, which seemed to have launched her status. Almost overnight,
New Soul became the top selling song on Apple's music download site/software, iTunes. It turns out that t
his stint at the top was short lived as Apple, it seems, enjoyed its own form of New Years present as users rushed to redeem iTunes gift certificates. Nevertheless, while Apple has contributed to Yael Naim's success, she has also contributed to Apple's as well.
And with this surge of continuing sales for Apple's music division, Apple has
recently ousted big-boy
Wal-Mart (NYSE:
WMT) as the #1 music retailer in the U.S. Ars Technica breaks out the numbers: 30% of retail music is now purchased online, and Apple has the largest share of retail sales including Wal-Mart and walmart.com sales.
Pretty impressive, eh?
"I'm a new soul, I came to this strange world hoping I could learn a bit bout how to give and take..."
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.Posted Apr 1st 2008 6:13PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: Private equity
While I spend most of my time looking for the next
Google, Inc. (Nasdaq:
GOOG) amongst public companies, I have friends who pursue similar goals but at different stages of company growth. They're venture capitalists. They get to bet OPM (Other Peoples' Money) on finding the next Sergei and Larry in a garage.
Don Dodge had an interesting article today on the state of the market for seed-stage investors, called Angels. In
Angels Investors put $26 billion in 57,000 companies, Don examines what 2007 had in store for startup investors. One thing that surprised me was that angels are "the largest source of seed stage and early stage start-up capital, with 39% of 2007 angel investments going there." With a lot of money looking for a home for professional Venture Capitalists, I would have thought that smaller, angel-type investors wouldn't be the largest source of funding for startups.
Some other interesting, salient points Dodge drives home:
Continue reading Angels guarding large investment sums in new startups
Posted Apr 1st 2008 11:22AM by Zack Miller
Filed under: International markets, Internet, Google (GOOG), Next big thing, Sprint Nextel Corp (S), Smartphones, Technology, Israel

I've focused some of my
writing and research on these pages on the hype surrounding WiMAX, an emerging telecommunications technology that could make broadband wireless access a reality. Some of the best WiMAX technology in being developed in Israel by firms like
Alvarion (NASDAQ:
ALVR) and
Ceragon (NASDAQ:
CRNT). In spite of on-again, off-again news coming out of big players like
Sprint Nextel (NYSE:
S), my thesis has always been that we can debate all we want as to whether WiMAX will hit in the U.S. The truth is that WiMAX is already happening in the rest of the world.
MarketWatch is out with a story this morning about some of the action happening in the telecommunications space surrounding WiMAX. In
Big investments rumored for wireless technology, MarketWatch reporter, Therese Poletti takes the usual tack by pointing out both sides of the argument that WiMAX "is full of potential to drive cheaper, high-speed wireless data, voice and video communications, or a dismal failure, depending on who you talk to."
The same article cites a spokesperson for chip-giant,
Intel (Nasdaq:
INTC), as saying that Intel "remains bullish on WiMAX, saying the technology is definitely 'ready for prime time.'"
.Continue reading Is you is or is you ain't WiMAX
Posted Mar 31st 2008 2:33PM by Zack Miller
Filed under: Personal finance, Housing, Recession
While the overall numbers of those American homeowners whose homes are getting foreclosed may be around -- to use Jim Cramer's statistic -- 1 in 550, I have to assume there are a lot more people getting closer to this point. When incomes are somewhat stagnant and housing prices are down, a lot of us can no longer tap our house to access more money. So what happens in a worst case scenario?
Bankruptcy seems to be a viable option for more and more Americans. In
Arming against foreclosure, MarketWatch examines measures being taken at the legislative level to help Americans ward off foreclosure. One interesting proposal mentioned is one "that consumer advocates see as key to helping more people stay in their homes: allowing bankruptcy courts to modify troubled mortgages on primary residences."
Currently, bankruptcy law cannot enact measure to modify the mortgage on a primary residence, forcing homeowners to find different solutions to keep their homes. Consumer advocates are pushing for new measures to allow for bankruptcy law to act as an "efficient and established method for troubled homeowners to make good" on their debts, particularly their mortgages.
For a lot of people, declaring bankruptcy and leaving their homes may make financial sense if the debts on the home now exceed the value of the home. In this case, homeowners would be going long bankruptcy and short the housing market.
It's a tough trade.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.Next Page >